Showing posts with label oil production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil production. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Things that seem unimportant but are really bad signs. Also there are some positives

Pontiac, the car brand, is probably going to be a part of history in the coming months. No longer will small badly built Sunfires plague the roads. Unfortunately, we're fucked. Cars exist for one reason: to be exciting. On the surface you can argue with me, but let me elaborate:

  • Transportation: I think we can all agree that there are other ways to transport ourselves. In an urban environment. Public transit, annoying as it is, is often faster, absolutely cheaper, and scientifically proven to be less stressful than driving (I have no citations). True, public transit has problems. No one likes walking. But there are several ways that this problem can be solved. One solution is what the prophetic and enjoyable Minority Report demonstrates: Personalized public transit. I picture a residence+vehicle program where an existing infrastructure is used to operate a more personal way of "transit". Small capacity vehicles without driver interface can operate together to greatly increase efficiency, and more importantly, comfort. That's why we don't ride trains and buses: they're run by incompetent (other than BC it seems) organizations that genuinely do not give a shit about their riders. How can I be so sure? Ride an old C-train, the ones from the 60's. I want to point out that the trains in North Korea are 8 years newer than ours, albeit of much worse quality. The seats face each other, the spaces inbetween are inadequate, and all this is fixable by a simple retrofit. Cost > customers, because it's publicly run. Counterintuitive, I know, but because there's absolutely zero competition, there's no incentive to improve comfort. There's only an incentive to use as little of the budget as possible, which explains why we spent tens of millions on new trains in calgary instead of tens of millions of fixing the 7th avenue infrastructure with a series of underpasses.
  • Utility: So fine. Cars/trucks deliver goods. Well, that problem is in the process of being solved. A new design to replace the double-decker buses in London incorporates seating that converts to cargo room. I see no reason that the same autonomous small-capacity transport vehicles cant integrate either their own cargo space, or latch on to other cargo modules. Once up to speed, only one vehicle needs to use its drive, and the aerodynamic gains will make the old way seem insane. Unfortunately, the bus design was rejected in favor of buses designed by Aston Martin, one of the most insanely wasteful and badly run auto companies ever to inhabit the economy. Yay progress.
So anyway, we've solved all the real bits. Except Cars only exist to be exciting. Pontiac is The excitement brand. If they're gone, what's next? We're running out of whimsy. Nothing I mentioned is exciting. If we get rid of cars, what will that segment of society find exciting next? I nominate extreme marijuana abuse, but I have a feeling that wont pass legislation. Drug addiction is unacceptable, whereas addiction to pointless speed and chemical energy consumption is accepted gladly.

Anyways, what I'm trying to say is that Pontiac's dissolution is heralding the destruction of the modern transportation industry, the only thing that currently links the vast, vast, vast majority of urban spaces. The first country to embrace this will increase their economic output by such a margin that only a cable to space would upstage it.

While we're on the subject, WHERE IS THE CABLE TO SPACE? GET ON IT JAPAN.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Who Will Run out of Oil First?

Using the Cia world factbook numbers on known oil reserves and oil production per day per country, i will find out which major oil producing country will run out of oil first. i will not focus on imports, exports or consumption, instead i will only focus on oil production. Oil is taken from the ground by a giant pump like object, then it goes to a factory to be produced into something else (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel) and then it is either consumed or exported. This is my logic, and this is my graph.

World Production will run out in 15,670 days or 43 years at current day paces assuming no more giant oil reserves are found.



It is good to know that canadian oil is in good hands with Stevie-H. He's being smart about our reserves and not selling future genereations out to this generation. At this pace, canada will be the second last country to run out of oil and that will be in 142 years. imagine how much we can charge for oil when nobody else has any except canada and America's 51st state Iraq.

It is amazing that America and China will be running out of oil so soon. America, at its current pace will run out in 6 years, while china only has 12 years left. i would say that america is in better position than china though, just because the invasion of Iraq makes them the preferred trading partner of many iraqi businesses.

I'll buy my toyota hybrid in 143 years i guess. but wait. maybe we shouldn't wait for oil to run out and we should start buying our toyota hybrids today? theres something to think about unless your still thinking about my awesome graph.